For two-plus years, I've been thinking about this question: why no conspicuous spike in deaths before March 2020 (if "early spread" was actually occurring)? One puzzler was/is why no major outbreaks that would cause many deaths in nursing homes? After all, we know that 40 to 80 percent of deaths (in Canada) occurred in nursing home resid…
For two-plus years, I've been thinking about this question: why no conspicuous spike in deaths before March 2020 (if "early spread" was actually occurring)? One puzzler was/is why no major outbreaks that would cause many deaths in nursing homes? After all, we know that 40 to 80 percent of deaths (in Canada) occurred in nursing home residents.
I think there were some "early deaths" in nursing homes that were attributed to other causes. These deaths were simply "missed" as no one knew about Covid. However, I think I later got a possible answer/explanation for the lack of deaths in nursing homes at earlier dates.
I think most people were "sick" (symptomatic) from Covid in November 2019 to early March 2020. This was large numbers of of people outside of nursing homes who had ILI symptoms. But it occurs to me that when family members are sick, they do NOT visit their loved ones in nursing homes. Everyone knows that even a bad cold can be fatal to old people who already have multiple co-morbid conditions. Nursing homes pound home the message (to staff and visitors) that they should not come to work or visit a resident if they are sick or have recently been sick. I think people followed this common-sense guidance.
That's probably why the virus did not get into nursing homes (in huge numbers) in the cold and flu season of 2019-2020. Also, many nursing home residents are isolated and never or rarely leave their rooms. So if some resident was infected, it might be less likely they would spread the virus to fellow residents?
If residents were really sick, they would have been transported to the hospital, further isolating them from fellow residents.
At some point (post lockdowns) the virus did get into the nursing home populations in large numbers. Perhaps because the virus spread or was picked up at these same hospitals?
Anyway, there might be a simple reason this virus didn't inundate nursing homes earlier. The people who could have infected their loved ones stayed away from nursing homes when they were sick or shedding virus.
Early cases were most likely being treated appropriately in 2019 and early 2020. It was when early treatment was banned that the trouble started. It was on PURPOSE to create death and fear.
For two-plus years, I've been thinking about this question: why no conspicuous spike in deaths before March 2020 (if "early spread" was actually occurring)? One puzzler was/is why no major outbreaks that would cause many deaths in nursing homes? After all, we know that 40 to 80 percent of deaths (in Canada) occurred in nursing home residents.
I think there were some "early deaths" in nursing homes that were attributed to other causes. These deaths were simply "missed" as no one knew about Covid. However, I think I later got a possible answer/explanation for the lack of deaths in nursing homes at earlier dates.
I think most people were "sick" (symptomatic) from Covid in November 2019 to early March 2020. This was large numbers of of people outside of nursing homes who had ILI symptoms. But it occurs to me that when family members are sick, they do NOT visit their loved ones in nursing homes. Everyone knows that even a bad cold can be fatal to old people who already have multiple co-morbid conditions. Nursing homes pound home the message (to staff and visitors) that they should not come to work or visit a resident if they are sick or have recently been sick. I think people followed this common-sense guidance.
That's probably why the virus did not get into nursing homes (in huge numbers) in the cold and flu season of 2019-2020. Also, many nursing home residents are isolated and never or rarely leave their rooms. So if some resident was infected, it might be less likely they would spread the virus to fellow residents?
If residents were really sick, they would have been transported to the hospital, further isolating them from fellow residents.
At some point (post lockdowns) the virus did get into the nursing home populations in large numbers. Perhaps because the virus spread or was picked up at these same hospitals?
Anyway, there might be a simple reason this virus didn't inundate nursing homes earlier. The people who could have infected their loved ones stayed away from nursing homes when they were sick or shedding virus.
Early cases were most likely being treated appropriately in 2019 and early 2020. It was when early treatment was banned that the trouble started. It was on PURPOSE to create death and fear.